Colorectal cancer surgery of octogenarians in Hong Kong: who will survive?

OBJECTIVE. To assess the accuracy of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland scoring system in predicting the 30-day mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer in Hong Kong elderly (aged 80 years or more) patients. DESIGN. Early mortality outcome audit in a historical cohort. SETTING. Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong. PATIENTS. All Chinese patients (aged 80 years or more) who underwent elective or emergency surgery for colorectal cancer in the Department of Surgery between January 2005 and December 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to estimate the predictive ability of the score. RESULTS. In all, 180 patients with colorectal cancer were included in this review. The overall 30-day and hospital mortality rates were 29/180 (16%) and 31/180 (17%), respectively. The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland score was significantly higher among patients who died within 30 days (4.2 vs 3.1, P=0.0001), and was the only independent predictor for 30-day mortality by logistic regression (P=0.009; odds ratio=2.555; 95% confidence interval, 1.277-4.932). The mean score of this study population was 3.22 (median, 3.10), giving a predicted 30-day mortality rate of 16.0 to 17.4%, which corresponded with an observed 30-day mortality of 16.1% encountered in this study. The score had a significantly larger area under the curve for the 30-day mortality rates (odds ratio=0.811; 95% confidence interval, 0.722-0.849) as compared to the American Society of Anesthesiologists score (0.664; 0.589-0.735) [P=0.0001]. CONCLUSION. The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland scoring system can accurately predict the 30-day mortality rate of elderly Hong Kong Chinese patients (aged 80 years or more) operated on for colorectal cancer.